Madelyn Fink, Stephanie Steiner-Otoo, Sean Hannigan, Jack Slocum, and Matthew Buchicchio contributed to this report.
By JENNA CRAIG
In the 2020 election, the U.S. saw a large increase in turnout from all eligible voters, but the biggest percentage increase came from the Latino community, according to Juan González. An award-winning journalist, co-host of “Democracy Now!” and professor at Rutgers University, González shared his research findings on the Latino vote with college students through the Schomburg Scholars program on March 24.
“It looks like at least four million more Latinos voted this time than voted in 2016,” González recalls, according to a best estimate from a UCLA study.
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Many folks analyzing the Latino vote, especially those using data from the Edison exit poll, were primarily focused on the voting patterns for Donald Trump and Joe Biden, suggesting that there was a huge shift towards Trump. However, González argued that this is not the case.
Despite Trump gaining a small percentage increase over Hillary Clinton in 2016, historical trends show that the shift analysts are suggesting is not that large. According to González’s research, the losing Republican presidential candidate in the last 50 years has typically received votes from the Latino community at a steady rate without much variation, with candidates like John McCain getting fewer Latino votes than Trump, but candidates like Ronald Reagan and George Bush receiving more.
González said the real story that came out of the 2020 election wasn’t necessarily about how the specific votes between Biden and Trump, but rather the “the huge increase in the Latino vote means Latinos played a much bigger role in the election.”
How we should be understand the Latino vote
Current studies of the Latino vote put into question what the Latino vote even means, pointing out that many expect that Latinos will largely vote in one direction or the other. González says that the Latino community is not monolithic — it is in fact very complex, and political values are often linked to class and origin.
While it is mostly assumed that Latinos would vote Democrat, certain populations have always been more conservative. For instance, Pew Research says 58% of 2020 Cuban voters identify as Republicans with the other 38% being Democrats.
Then again, the Latino diaspora also differ depending on the states they live in, suggesting that the Latino communities in certain states will have different values than those in other states.
While most attention regarding the Latino vote has been on Florida and Texas, the UCLA analysis suggests that the real impact came from states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
For example, The AS/COA says that Biden lost four points in Nevada because Latino men in particular voted for Trump in large numbers.
According to Arizona Central, the statewide Latino vote was “critical for Democrats, as 63% of their votes went to Biden and 36% to Trump, according to exit polls.” This is a four percent drop compared to Arizona’s Latino vote for Trump in 2016.
In the end, it was the Democratic victories by Latinos in a handful of specific states and counties that allowed Biden to win.
When it mattered most, Latino voters delivered President-elect @JoeBiden & Vice President-elect @KamalaHarris a clear and substantial mandate. https://t.co/xMuvkQqlh8
— Latino Victory (@latinovictoryus) November 9, 2020
The rise in Latinos voting will continue
So what caused this overall surge in Latino voters? González thinks it is “directly attributable to the atmosphere that was created over the last four years of the scapegoating and demonization of the Latino community, and the anti-immigrant hysteria.”
He thinks this atmosphere has especially impacted younger generations, like the continuous rise in eligible Gen Z voters. “Those young people are increasingly seeing the need to get politically involved to defend their families and to defend how their community is portrayed.”
Based on the impressive Latino voter turnout in off year elections and the 2020 election, González expects the surge in the Latino vote to continue in the years leading up to the 2024 election. “I think it will continue to grow at breathtaking speed.”
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I like how short and concise the article is. You have a great mix of tweets, instagram posts, information from the talk, and linked background research sources. If this was a piece written for a publication outside of class, I would say that readers unfamiliar with the topic of the Latino vote would easily be able to understand what it is and the changes that have occurred. Great work!
Wow this article showed and explained to me how big the Latino have impact. Loved the tweets!! I like the points you made, for example when you stated that many Latinos voted in 2016